Europe
And Other Major Heroin Markets Should Brace Themselves
For Health Consequences Of Harvest, Warns UN Afghanistan's
opium economy will take up to 20 years to eradicate
and require a UKP1bn investment from world leaders,
according to a government study published yesterday.
The 102-page report was welcomed by the international
development secretary, Douglas Alexander, even
though it contains some highly critical messages
about the effectiveness of some of the aid programmes.
Compiled by the Department of International Development
and the World Bank, the analysis suggests at least
an extra UKP1bn needs to be invested in irrigation,
roads, alternative crops and rural development
to attract farmers away from the lucrative and
growing opium industry. Its conclusions came as
the UN produced fresh figures on the opium trade.
The UN's Office on Drugs and Crime ( UNODC ) believes
this year's crop will be similar to, or slightly
lower than, last year's record harvest. In 2007
Afghanistan had more land growing drugs than Colombia,
Bolivia and Peru combined. "While it is encouraging
that the dramatic increases of the past few years
seem to be levelling off, the total amount of
opium being harvested remains shockingly high,"
said UNODC chief, Antonio Maria Costa, in a statement.
"Europe and other major heroin markets should
brace themselves for the health and security consequences,"
he said. "Much is already happening and very
large investments are being made," the report
says. "But these have been fragmented and
not within a programatic approach and not with
a counter narcotic lens. To achieve results will
require consistent approaches, considerable time,
persistence in the face of short term setbacks
and massive co-ordinated sustained investment,
as well as political vision and stamina."
Highlighting the lack of coordination in the current
aid effort, the report warns: "The result
of weak Afghan leadership and poor donor adherence
... will be some very messy and ill co-ordinated
development activities. "In rural livelihood
programmes for example some donors have agreed
to consultations, but nevertheless finance programmes
outside the budget with scant reference either
to the government or agencies." It says less
than a quarter of the total aid to Afghanistan
currently goes through the Afghan national budget,
and also criticises the military forces in Afghanistan
for not sourcing goods and products from within
Afghanistan. "The economic growth needed
to displace the opium economy and the development
of the necessary infrastructure and governance
to support it will take at least one or two decades".
Providing security is an essential component of
the counter narcotics effort, but the study says
the provincial reconstruction teams set up by
Nato forces "by and large have not been successful
in ensuring a safer environment for development
programmes". The teams should provide a credible
bridge between security activities and their development
agenda, and a conducive environment in which the
latter can be pursued. However, the study warns:
"It is not clear the PRTs [provincial reconstruction
teams] have been able to provide this safe environment
for development programmes. "Moreover foreign
military personnel rotate fast which reduces the
consistency of policies in PRTs and leads to a
disconcerting tendency to 'always try something
new'."
It adds that "once a vicious circle sets
in development options greatly shrink. Security
has deteriorated since 2005. This has two big
effects. First donor contributions get eroded
as more is spent on security and less on delivery,
and second there is a slow down in project delivery."
It argues that in Helmand, the province in which
British troops operate and the citadel of opium
production, the Taliban insurgency severely limits
people's movements making marketing of legal agricultural
produce more difficult and dangerous. In areas
of insecurity "opium markets work well. Opium
traders provide advances, travel to the farm gate
to purchase the crop and cover the cost of transport
and bribes to those manning the check posts. They
also take the physical risk of travel in secure
areas." The report says: "This creates
a near impossible policy challenge trying to establish
governance and sustainable development in conditions
where there is a fight against insurgents and
a political necessity to 'do something' about
poppy."
In Helmand once security increases, the report
suggest the province could become the home of
cotton production. Other new products are raisins,
melons, cumin as well as livestock farming. The
report recommends investments of $550m (UKP275m)
to boost rural enterprise development, and $400m
for rural road planning, construction and maintenance.
Overall, Afghan farmers need start-up assistance,
matching investment grants, cost sharing market
development and a commitment to deliver through
community development councils with the aid itself
seen as coming from the Afghan government, and
not the true donor. The number of poppy-free provinces
is expected to rise from 12 in 2007, to 14 or
15, mostly in the north and east, out of a total
of 34 Afghan provinces, the UNODC said.
But opium production continues to grow "at
an alarming rate" in the south and west,
it said. All the poppy farmers surveyed in southern
Afghanistan said they paid a tax of 10% of their
opium income to the Taliban or corrupt government
officials.
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